The balance of payments model holds that foreign exchange rates are at an equilibrium level if they produce a stable current account balance. A nation with a trade deficit will experience a reduction in its foreign exchange reserves, which ultimately lowers (depreciates) the value of its currency. A cheaper (undervalued) currency renders the nation's goods (exports) more affordable in the global market while making imports more expensive. After an intermediate period, imports will be forced down and exports to rise, thus stabilizing the trade balance and bring the currency towards equilibrium. Like purchasing power parity, the balance of payments model focuses largely on trade-able goods and services, ignoring the increasing role of global capital flows. In other words, money is not only chasing goods and services, but to a larger extent, financial assets such as stocks and bonds. Their flows go into the capital account item of the balance of payments, thus balancing the deficit in the current account. The increase in capital flows has given rise to the asset market model effectively.

Balance of payments model

FROM Wikipedia

The increasing volume of trading of financial assets (stocks and bonds) has required a rethink of its impact on exchange rates. Economic variables such as economic growth, inflation and productivity are no longer the only drivers of currency movements. The proportion of foreign exchange transactions stemming from cross border-trading of financial assets has dwarfed the extent of currency transactions generated from trading in goods and services. The asset market approach views currencies as asset prices traded in an efficient financial market. Consequently, currencies are increasingly demonstrating a strong correlation with other markets, particularly equities. Like the stock exchange, money can be made (or lost) on trading by investors and speculators in the foreign exchange market. Currencies can be traded at spot and foreign exchange options markets. The spot market represents current exchange rates, whereas options are derivatives of exchange rates.

Asset market model

FROM Wikipedia

A country may gain an advantage in international trade if it controls the market for its currency to keep its value low, typically by the national central bank engaging in open market operations in the foreign exchange market. In the early twenty-first century it was widely asserted that the People's Republic of China had been doing this over a long period of time. Other nations, including Iceland, Japan, Brazil, and so on have had a policy of maintaining a low value of their currencies in the hope of reducing the cost of exports and thus bolstering their economies. A lower exchange rate lowers the price of a country's goods for consumers in other countries, but raises the price of imported goods and services for consumers in the low value currency country. In general, exporters of goods and services will prefer a lower value for their currencies, while importers will prefer a higher value.

Manipulation of exchange rates

FROM Wikipedia

1. Understanding foreign exchange: exchange rates Archived 2004-12-23 at the Wayback Machine. 2. Mouhamed Abdulla. "Understanding Pip Movement in FOREX Trading" (PDF). Report, Mar. 2014. 3. "Currency Adjustment Factor - CAF". Academic Dictionaries and Encyclopedias. 4. "Currency Adjustment Factor". Global Forwarding. 5. Erlat, Guzin; Arslaner, Ferhat (December 1997). "Measuring Annual Real Exchange Rate Series for Turkey". Yapi Kredi Economic Review. 2 (8): 35–61. 6. Zelealem Yiheyis (December 1998). "The Economic Determinants of the Parallel Currency Premium: Evidence from Select African Countries" (PDF). Journal of Economic Development. 23 (2). 7. The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates, Richard Lyons, MIT Press (pdf chapter 1) 8. "China denies currency undervalued" article on BBC News on Sunday, 14 March 2010 9. "More Countries Adopt China’s Tactics on Currency" article by David E. Sanger and Michael Wines in The New York Times October 3, 2010, accessed October 4, 2010


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